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Analyzing America's Sports Betting Growth, Financial Trends, and Responsible Gambling Measures
US Sports Betting Estimate: $8bn in Revenue By 2030
November 28, 2018 Jim Murphy
The tide in the United States has changed ever since the Supreme Court ruled to lift a ban on sports gambling.
Many states rushed to legalize sports betting (some completed the process) and it was just a matter of time until a large majority of states would in.
A rapid growth of sports betting is predicted! By 2030, the United States could become the second largest market in the world, however…
…it might only reach a third of its potential size.
It is beyond a shadow of a doubt that the US Supreme Court’s decision on PASPA opens both a door and a window for sports gambling to enter the United States market. The regulations are changing swiftly and H2 estimates that America will become the fifth largest market, jumping from the ninth position by the end of 2018.
What the Future Holds
In five years, the United States is expected to sur the already-developed markets of Italy and the United Kingdom, moving to the third place on the list, behind Japan and China.
Give or take a few years, the United States will eventually claim the second spot instead of Japan, thus closing the gap on China, which sits on the throne.
Official Explanations
H2 Gambling Capital director David Henwood commented on the forecast: “Undoubtedly the biggest takeaway is US sports betting (unlike US igaming before it) coming straight out the blocks. The big difference is this wasn’t a standing start.”
He continued: “Although sports betting was only 0.2% of all legal US gambling pre 14 May, some $196bn was being bet on sport illegally. Add a thriving DFS market to the mix and that represents quite a high potential untapped market for a post-PASPA regulated sports betting offer to attack.”
“Going forward, we’ll see the US market grow rapidly to outstrip the UK’s within five years, leaving only China and Japan (both monopolies) bigger,” he concluded.
Rather Complex
Even though the potential of the United States market is gigantic…
…not everything is as easy as it sounds.
Several factors could decelerate the ongoing sports betting expansion and drastically reduce the revenue gained over the years.
With that being said, in the best case scenario, the sports gambling revenue could soar up to $25 billion by 2030! Nevertheless, the country will most likely collect “only” $8 billion, which is one third of the market potential.
What are the factors which could harm the revenue?
Primarily, there are states which are reluctant to regulate sports betting. According to H2, approximately…
…20 US states will fail to legalize sports betting by 2030, which will for a multi-billion loss! The two largest markets – New York and California – could harm the revenue significantly should they fail to regulate it.
At the same time, they are expected to be the leaders in 12 years, with California, which has already initiated the procedure, and New York generating around $1.9 billion and $928.2 million, respectively.
The other factors include:
- High tax rates
- Mobile accessibility
- Restrictions on entities that can offer this form of gambling
H2 had a difficult job anticipating the sports betting revenue by 2030 considering that each state will have a chance to shape this type of gambling according to its own liking…
…or not introduce it at all!
Source:
“US Sportsbook market to reach $8bn in revenue by 2030”, igamingbusiness.com, November 26, 2018.
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It is hard to tell what it will happen in the future. While some states hurried to legalize sports betting, the others are waiting, probably to see both the good and the bad sides and then make a decision. This is a smart move if you ask me and I wouldn’t rush it.